Cannibalization
Cannibalization asks one question: when this shop spends more on ads, does the order book grow — or do orders that would have arrived anyway simply move into the ad-attributed column? The page shows the evidence DataGlass has, the gates that evidence passed or failed, and nothing beyond that.
Find it at Ads → Cannibalization, on Shopee shops only. The panel is built from per-order ad classification, which no other marketplace produces.
What the two measures mean
| Measure | Reads as |
|---|---|
| CI (cannibalization index) | Book displacement per unit of log spend — how much of the non-ad order book moves as spend rises. |
| BCE (bounded cannibalization estimate) | The share of the attributed gain that is paired with a residual loss of non-ad orders. |
| Book exposure | BCE applied at the dose this shop actually spends, in percentage points of the order book. |
CI is drawn as a 12-week rolling estimate, recomputed daily. BCE is a single verdict at one date over a 180-day reference window, not a series — so it appears as one figure beside the chart rather than a second line on it.
Outcomes mature for 16 days before they count, and the current BCE calibration is fitted on CPC history; CPM delivery needs an impression-based refit before it can be read the same way.
What each status means
The header carries one status, and it is the honest reading of two independent gates — whether the shop could be measured at all, and whether anything was found.
| Status | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Exposure flagged | The temporal displacement screen passed its support and stability gates. |
| No signal | We looked. No publishable residual-loss signal passed the BCE gates. |
| Unstable signal | A raw signal existed but did not survive a stability route. |
| Unresolved | The signal is too extreme to publish as bounded exposure. |
| Not admitted | We could not look — the shop does not meet the historical support floor. |
No signal and Not admitted are different answers and are never collapsed into one. The first means the test ran and found nothing; the second means there was not enough classified history to run it.
Reading the cannibalization decomposition
When the index is admitted, four figures sit under the chart. They matter because the scalar alone invites the wrong conclusion: an index driven by the demand term is a shrinking order book, which defensive spending also produces.
| Figure | What it tells you |
|---|---|
| Scored weeks | How many weeks of mature history the estimate rests on. |
| Ad share | The share of the order book that is ad-attributed. |
| Ad term | The part of the index attributable to ad delivery. |
| Demand term | The part attributable to underlying demand moving. |
If the shop is not admitted there is no quotable figure, and the page shows the exclusion reason instead — that reason is the answer.
Where to take cannibalization next
Cannibalization is a shop-level read. To act on it per campaign, pair it with True ROAS, which nets each campaign's revenue down to profit, and with an optimization group objective and constraint, which is where a spend decision is actually made.